www.medannews.com - Ekonomi Bisnis

July 14, 2008 09:21:11AM
Matahari Putra Prima Tbk (Rp570 - BUY) - Shining Through
Despite the current economic turbulence and continued stiff competition, we remain positive on the counter. We believe the threat of inflation and interest rate should not have a severe impact on performance. The economic challenges have led us to revise our risk free and risk premium to 10.5% and 5.0%. As such, our DCF derived target price has been slashed from Rp960 to Rp660. Despite the cut, investors are still slated to enjoy a 15.8% gain. The counter is trading at 2008 and 2009 P/E of 12.2x and 8.1x, while EV/EBITDA stand at 3.0x and 2.4x, these valuations are still deemed to be attractive. Hence, we maintain our BUY recommendation.

July 02, 2008 01:53:54PM
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk (Not Rated ) - Taking Advantage of Conditions
Issues on illegal logging and corporate governance have TKIM’s to huge discounts in valuation. However, at FY08 P/E of 4.3x and P/BV of 0.5x, we see value in the company. Compared to its peers, the counter is trading at steep discount of 77.4% and 54.3% to average global FY08 P/E and P/BV of 18.9x and 1.2x, respectively. Valued at EV/ton of US$1,092, the company also offers an interesting proposition as latest data from Garuda Kalimantan Lestari and Kaltim Prima Pulp and Paper suggest that investment cost of building a new plant was about US$1,431/ton, not to mention factors of stickiness in acquiring new forest concession and steel price that already double jump to over US$1,000/ton level this year.

June 30, 2008 03:18:09PM
Ciputra Surya Tbk (Rp475- BUY) - Looking Beyond the Trough
We still maintain our positive outlook on the counter due to: 1) the counter is undervalued and cheap, as it is traded at FY08 P/E and P/BV of 8.1x and 0.7x lower than industry average of 30.2x and 1.5x, 2) strong marketing performance in FY07 and 5M08, 3) increasing contribution from recurring projects and 4) slowing down in 2008 is only temporary, while maintaining positive outlook for 2009 onward. However, we have downgraded our blended TP to Rp 930 per share from the previous Rp1,430 per share. Considering that currently the counter is trading at 48.9% discount from our TP, we maintain our BUY recommendation.

June 30, 2008 11:38:21AM
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (Rp28,800 - BUY) - Attractiveness Bouyed CPO Prices
We are upgrading our target price for AALI to Rp31,900 from Rp29,550 previously. Our target price is still based on DCF valuation method with higher risk free rate of 10.5% (previously 8.0%) and higher market risk premium of 5% (previously 4%), which produces WACC of 11.9%. We believe that as a pure palm player and as a plantation company that has the biggest palm oil plantation area under management, AALI will benefit most from any increases in CPO price. We like AALI for its strong balance sheet and its 2008 ROE of 68.1% is the highest ROE among other Indonesian listed plantation companies. Maintain BUY for AALI with TP of Rp31,900.

June 12, 2008 02:55:27PM
Gajah Tunggal Tbk (Rp455 - BUY) - Growth on Track
GJTL currently trades at a 2008 P/E and PBV of 4.6x and 0.6x respectively. Comparing GJTL with some regional peers, we note that GJTL´s P/E and PBV stand below its regional peers. Assuming risk free rate of 10.5% and risk premium of 5%, we set our target price of Rp640 per share; hence we maintain our BUY recommendation on GJTL. With current price of Rp455 per share, our target price offers a 40.7% upside potential.